Any scientist worth their salt will tell you that the vast majority of theories don’t pan out when tested experimentally. The theories that most of us are familiar with (such as Einstein’s theory of relativity) are the rare ones, those that have survived (so far) all attempts to disprove them.
Unfortunately, these few, successful theories are the only ones that we get taught in school. This creates a false perception about theories: if we never hear about the many theories that have been proven wrong, then this leads to a kind of scientific gullibility, in which any plausible sounding explanation (especially if it has lots of scientific-sounding terms) is accepted at face value.
And this is not just true in science, but in politics as well.
What I have observed is that many people’s political beliefs are based on theories rather than facts. Only, we don’t call them “theories”. You could call them “stories” or “narratives”, but what they basically are is plausible-sounding explanations of “human nature” and “common sense”.
These stories shape our beliefs about human qualities like fairness, hard work, ambition, integrity, and opportunity.
The problem is that a lot of these theories are simply wrong. Some are completely false, and don’t match reality under any circumstance; others are right under specific conditions but are often applied too broadly, or in the wrong context.
Here’s an example of a story: “if you work hard, you’ll get ahead.”
Who hasn’t told that story from time to time? Who hasn’t encouraged a young person to work hard on the promise that doing so will lead to success in life? Worse, to deny that hard work leads to success seems dangerous and irresponsible, leading to slacking or idleness.
And yet, what about all of the people who worked hard their whole life and never got ahead?
What about the people who did everything right, but started out so disadvantaged that they never had a chance to succeed?
What about the people who started out ahead, and didn’t work hard at all?
But it gets worse: if we accept this story as true, then it means that we have to accept the inverse proposition as well: “If you didn’t get ahead, that means you didn’t work hard.”
In other words, we can blame the victim for their own misfortune. We can believe that poverty is the fault of the poor. We can look at our own lives and feel morally superior to those less fortunate.
Of course, this story does have a grain of truth to it: hard work can lead to success, under the right circumstances, but it is only one of many enabling conditions. Given a choice between working hard towards a desired goal and giving up, it is almost always better to strive for the goal.
All my life I’ve heard stories about poor people:
- That they spend all of their spare money on drugs and booze.
- That they don’t want to work hard, but only want a free handout from the government.
- That they are lazy and stupid.
And the question I always want to ask is, “Do you actually know any poor people?” and “Have you ever actually met someone who behaves like that?”
My experience is the opposite: people who are on government assistance desperately want to get off of it. And they work hard in pursuit of that objective.
Of course, the right thing to do is not rely on personal knowledge or anecdote. The right thing to do is to look at actual data. And what we often find is that these intuitive stories simply don’t fit the facts.
Story: “People wouldn’t need food stamps if they were willing to work”.
Fact: Most people on food stamps have jobs already, it’s just that the jobs pay so low that they can’t make ends meet. And many of the rest are unable to work for one reason or another, such as a debilitating medical condition or needing to take care of young children.
There’s a lot of stories like that out there. Stories propagate because they seem true, not because they are true.
Most theories are wrong.
Here’s what I want you, the reader, to do: think about your own beliefs. Which of those beliefs are based on facts, and which are based on stories? I don’t expect you to come up with an answer in the next ten minutes (it’s not easy to enumerate your own beliefs!) In fact, this kind of introspective self-examination takes decades.
But when you read an article in the newspaper, or a posting on social media, or hear a debate at a party, think about the assumptions contained within it. Question the premises of what’s being said. If you are feeling ambitious, see if you can back it up with actual facts from reputable sources. Do your homework.
Don’t just accept the story at face value.
More fundamentally, learn to recognize the difference between a fact and a theory. Forming this habit takes practice and resolve.
And remember: most theories are wrong.
